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Credit: From left to right: Daisy Dobrijevic, Noaa, Canva Pro
Sunspot Region 4168 certainly makes a whole name for itself!
Earlier this week, Active Region 4168 released Three M-class torches within 24 hoursending weeks of calm on the sun. Then, on August 5, it shot a strong M4.4-class Flare, piped at 11:58 am Edt (15:58 GMT), and threw one Coronal mass -droppings (Cme) in the room. But although the eruption came from almost Smack-Dab in the middle of sunThe disc, a place that usually spelled “bullseye” in front of the earth, it had a trick in store.
Instead of going to go to us, the CME launched sideways, with the majority of his plasma throwing to the west, away from Earth. Yet space weather forecasters say There is an opportunity The earth can still receive a look from the CME on 8 August, which could cause a small (G1) geomagnetic storm, possibly sparks northern lights as far to the south as North -Michigan and Maine.
The M4.4 Solar Flare unleashed a coronal mass of eject (CME) in the room – and the earth may just get a lightning blow. | Credit: ASA / SDO and the AIA, EVE and HMI-Science teams, Helioviewer.org
“Almost central disk flare, CME goes sideways. Just solar cycle 25 things,” Aurora Chaser Jure Atanackov Posted on XAdding the strange behavior.
Yet the earth may not be entirely in freedom. Atanackov Be To NASA’s WSA-enlil model, which “can designate the CME of the M4.4-Flare (despite his efforts), still cut us.” The model suggests a potential impact around 2:00 AM EDT (0600 UTC) on 8 August – with a generous margin margin of ± 8 hours.
The UK with Office agrees that there is potential and notes that “because this region was located near the middle disk at the time, there is a chance of a component focused on earth.” However, they also say that trust in that prediction is low.
Sunspots visible on the sun today (August 6). The orientation of the sun from on earth -based telescopes varies depending on time, location and telescopic setup. This image has been adjusted to match how the space-based observatories such as NASA’s Solar Dynamics Observatory View the Sun-with Solar North Up. | Credit: Made in Canva Pro by Daisy Dobrijevic. Sun image recorded on August 6, 2025 with Vaonis Vespera Pro.
If the cme brushes past the earth, we could do that See Auroras Stretch to the south in high and even medium-widths, but only if the magnetic orientation of the storm (an important ingredient for Auroras) cooperates. In essence, the magnetic field must point from the CME to the south – opposite the northern field of the earth – to effectively connect and transfer the energy to ours magnetosphere. If instead points to the north, the “door closed” and solar wind Is just a look and the Auroras can be a no-show.
For now we wait and watch. As always at the sun – stay informed.
